The “New Suez Math”

Maritime transport has been in the spotlight in recent months—from rerouted container lines to rapidly changing war risk pricing. Read about what’s really changing, what companies often underestimate, and how cargo owners can protect their supply chains in today’s environment.

Q: Maritime transport has been making headlines recently—what is actually happening from your perspective?

Michal Stanislav: We are seeing a structural re-pricing of maritime risk. The issue is no longer limited to freight rates or delays. Companies now need to consider route safety, war exposure, sanctions, cargo accumulation, policy wording, and contractual flexibility at the same time.

Q: Why are developments in the Middle East such a critical issue for global shipping and trade?

Michal: Because several key maritime chokepoints are in or near the region: the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there immediately affects Europe–Asia trade, energy flows, container capacity and insurance pricing. Recent Joint War Committee updates also show that risk areas are being actively reassessed.

Q: What has changed the most in marine insurance in recent months, and how can Colonnade help cargo owners manage these risks more effectively?

Michal: Risk assessment has broadened significantly. Insurers now look beyond the vessel or cargo and assess the full geopolitical and commercial context—route, port calls, sanctions exposure, beneficial ownership, and potential links to shadow-fleet activity.

War-risk pricing is also far more dynamic, with some voyages priced or approved case by case, leading to higher additional premiums, stricter reporting, and deeper due diligence for high-risk areas.

And a key misunderstanding remains: standard “all risks” cargo policies often don’t automatically include war or terrorism, which usually require specific clauses or extensions.

In this environment, today’s market requires more than just standard cargo insurance. What makes a real difference is the ability to react quickly, understand the wider context of the shipment, and tailor solutions to the client’s actual trading routes and exposures. At Colonnade, we combine local decision-making with specialised marine expertise and a flexible approach. This allows us to respond faster to changing risks, support clients with complex or high-risk shipments, and provide practical guidance before issues become costly problems.

Q: There’s a term “The New Suez Math”—how would you explain it simply?

Michal: The cheapest or shortest route is no longer automatically the best route. Companies compare Suez versus the Cape of Good Hope not only by fuel and time, but also by security, insurance cost, crew safety, delay risk, customer penalties and reliability.

Q: What are companies most often underestimating right now?

Michal: Secondary costs: demurrage, detention, storage, missed production windows, stock-outs, contractual penalties, additional inventory financing, and sometimes gaps in insurance cover.

Q: What is your key advice for companies shipping through these regions today?

Michal: Don’t treat marine insurance as an afterthought. Before shipment, review the route, Incoterms, cargo clauses, war/strikes extensions, sanctions, carrier terms, insured value, accumulation limits and claims procedures. In the current environment, proactive route and insurance planning is a commercial advantage.

Q: Is this temporary disruption—or a new long-term reality?

Michal: Specific crises may ease over time, but geopolitical volatility in shipping is likely to remain a long-term reality. The key theme is resilience: more flexible logistics, stronger contractual control, and insurance programmes that reflect today’s risk environment.